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Title Pre-Analysis Plan for "The Electoral Consequences of the China Shock' in Brazil"
Post date 10/26/2018
C1 Background and Explanation of Rationale Import competition from Chinese manufactures has been shown to have a significant negative effect on U.S. local labor market outcomes. Moreover, import competition contributed has been shown to contribute to the polarization of the U.S. political landscape. In particular, U.S. counties with greater trade exposure shifted towards the Republican candidate in presidential elections. The effect of the `China shock'' in Brazil, however, is slightly different. Together with the import competition effect there is a positive effect of Chinese commodity demand on Brazilian local labor markets. In particular, researchers observe faster wage growth in locations benefiting from rising Chinese commodity demand between 2000 and 2010. Can the rising commodity demand have an opposite electoral effect than rising import competition? Or will it have the same effect?
C2 What are the hypotheses to be tested? The main set of hypotheses relates to the shift in political choices over a long period of time as a consequence of Chinese import competition and Chinese commodity demand. In particular, I will compare the results of the 2018 run-off election with the results of the 2006 General Election. 2006 is a good benchmark year because it was right before a big boom in trade relations between Brazil and China. More precisely, I will first test whether people in regions that were more exposed to trade competition with China are more likely to shift their support to the right-wing candidate (Social Liberal Party candidate) in the 2018 Brazil General election run-off as compared to the 2006 General election. Then, I will test whether people in regions that were more exposed to Chinese commodity demand are less likely to shift their support the right-wing candidate (Social Liberal Party candidate) in the 2018 Brazil General election run-off as compared to the 2006 General election.
C3 How will these hypotheses be tested? * I will follow the methodology used by Costa, Garred, and Pessoa, 2016, and calculate the import exposure and export exposure of the 558 Brazilian microregions. I will then instrument import exposure and export exposure by using information on growth in trade between China and other countries.
C4 Country United States
C5 Scale (# of Units) 558 microregions
C6 Was a power analysis conducted prior to data collection? not provided by authors
C7 Has this research received Insitutional Review Board (IRB) or ethics committee approval? No
C8 IRB Number n/a
C9 Date of IRB Approval n/a
C10 Will the intervention be implemented by the researcher or a third party? there is no intervention since this is an observational study about a forthcoming election
C11 Did any of the research team receive remuneration from the implementing agency for taking part in this research? No
C12 If relevant, is there an advance agreement with the implementation group that all results can be published? No
C13 JEL Classification(s) D72, F14