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Title Citizen-State Relations in Informal Settlements in Lagos, Nigeria
Post date 09/20/2018
C1 Background and Explanation of Rationale

Lagos, Nigeria, like other megacities across the globe serves as a symbol of promise and opportunity for those who call the city home. While the Nigerian government shares similar goals of growth for the city, in practice, development is uneven and leaves many of the city’s inhabitants behind. As the Lagos State government seeks to transform the country’s largest city into the next Dubai, it is faced with the question of how to develop its shopping malls and luxury apartment complexes while still upholding the social contract even with its poorest residents. Although there are some initiatives focused on inclusive development, the government has often adopted a strategy of simply trying to remove informal street hawkers and residents of informal settlements, through arrests, evictions, and demolitions. As a result, some residents of informal settlements fear being forcefully evicted from their homes by the government or overnight demolition of their entire community.

From an outsider’s perspective, it would appear that the state has broken its social contract with these citizens. When services no longer function and the state is seen as the predator, rather than protector, how do citizens view the government and make decisions about engaging with it? The goal of this pilot study is to explore the relationship between residents of informal settlements in this megacity and the government. We study these questions in Lagos because it serves as the nexus of tensions between the state’s implementation of its goals and citizens’ interests. And because its promise of opportunity is also a draw for migrants, Lagos is characterized by religious and ethnic diversity.

C2 What are the hypotheses to be tested? This study investigates how exposure to forced evictions correlates with mistrust of the state, investment in livelihoods, and political and community engagement. When residents are uncertain of what tomorrow might hold for them, how do they make economic investment decisions and choices about participating in political activities? How do they decide whether to engage and collaborate with their neighbors? Since state provision of social services is sparse in these settlements, community members may need to cooperate to self-provide. We examine intra-community dynamics and explore how individuals relate to and rely on other members of their community for both economic and social benefits. We also explore citizens’ relationships with local leaders, including traditional chiefs (baales), community development association (CDA) officials. These leaders likely play important roles as intermediaries with the state and community organizers. We are also interested in the role of traditional landowning elites, who are often politically powerful and may themselves either protect or predate on communities.
C3 How will these hypotheses be tested? *

Most hypotheses will be tested using linear regression. First, the bivariate relationship will be tested with a single regressor. Then the specified controls for will also be added. We will also look at heterogeneous effects. All regressions will include community and enumerator fixed effects.

Hypotheses tested with survey experiments will be tested using a standard difference-in-means test. In addition, we will use linear regression and include our standard controls and measures to investigate heterogeneous treatment effects. We will also include community and enumerator fixed effects.

See Pre-Analysis Plan (pages 3-9, “Empirical Strategy” sections) for more details.

C4 Country Nigeria
C5 Scale (# of Units) 502
C6 Was a power analysis conducted prior to data collection? No
C7 Has this research received Insitutional Review Board (IRB) or ethics committee approval? Yes
C8 IRB Number 1806399516
C9 Date of IRB Approval 07/03/2018
C10 Will the intervention be implemented by the researcher or a third party? Researchers
C11 Did any of the research team receive remuneration from the implementing agency for taking part in this research? not provided by authors
C12 If relevant, is there an advance agreement with the implementation group that all results can be published? not provided by authors
C13 JEL Classification(s) not provided by authors